Rich in lessons and easy to read despite the complexity of the subject, this report is the fourth edition of a prospective analysis carried out every four years since 1995 by the Ministry of Industry. Designed with the participation of 250 specialists, it identifies 85 technologies of the future in seven economic sectors: chemistry, information and communication technologies (ICT), environment, energy, transport, building and health (which includes agriculture and agri-food). This large-scale work is intended to help public and private actors – the State and local authorities as well as large industrialists and SMEs – in their strategic choices.
The context, as well as the major socio-economic issues for 2019-2020, are presented, first and foremost, for each of the previously defined sectors. With regard to the ICT sector, the established scope includes all sectors related to technologies, content and digital services, namely industrial electronics and components; consumer electronics (audio and video equipment); computer hardware (servers, PCs and peripherals, data transmission equipment); telecommunications equipment (network equipment, terminals, software and related services); embedded software and IT services, infrastructure or applications, professional and consumer (video games); software internet services (search engines, social networks); telecommunications services (fixed and mobile telephony); data transmissions; multimedia services and contents (television, video, cinema, digital music, radio, digital books, etc.), as well as simulation, modeling and intensive computing.
All these activities weighed nearly 2,800 billion euros globally in 2009, according to Idate. The information and communication technology sector is now a major segment of the economy of the major industrialized countries. It contributes nearly 6% of GDP in Europe against 7.5% in the United States. In addition, it influences the growth of all other economic sectors with a contribution of about 50% to productivity growth in Europe, according to the European Commission. Essential to the functioning and competitiveness of companies, ICTs are also present in every corner of everyday life. They constitute the main vector of the advancement of the knowledge society.
The report then analyzes the situation of France, its advantages, its weaknesses as well as the competitive opportunities and threats that concern it, with regard to future technologies such as robotics, wireless network technologies, optical broadband networks. , communicating objects, 3D technologies, human-machine interface, complex systems engineering and system systems, intensive computing, progressive / intelligent manufacturing, optoelectronics, nanoelectronics, content scanning technologies , holistic security, virtualization and cloud computing, embedded software and associated processors, data recovery and intelligence, and finally, portals, collaboration and unified communications.
With spending equal to 0.34% of GDP, France is slightly above the European average (0.30%) for research and development (R & D) in the ICT sector but remains below level reached by the United States (0.72%), Japan (0.87%) and South Korea (1.30%), the leading country in this field.
Although France has a rather weak presence in certain sectors such as consumer electronics, it nevertheless occupies an important place in the European electronic components industry, particularly for smart cards, contactless cards and RFID ( Gemalto, SK … see REM No. 6-7, p.38). It is also a reference country in the telecommunications field for its operators and equipment manufacturers with global reach (France Telecom, Alcatel-Lucent, Sagem, Thales …), as well as for its high-speed telecoms and IPTV services market .
The development of connected objects (M2M – see REM n ° 6-7, p.38 – and Internet of Things, see infra), digital content with 3D, virtual reality or augmented reality (Dassault Systems, Thales …) or the digitization of content with Europeana (INA, BNF, see REMn ° 9, p.30) are as many sectors of the future in which French know-how is recognized. On the other hand, France occupies a position below that of Germany or Great Britain for all hardware, software and IT services, with the exception of its excellent expertise in embedded systems for aerospace and military industry (Altran). France is also the country of free software if we take into account the number of projects per inhabitant. After Japan and the United States, France also has one of the most internationalized IT services industry (Capgemini, Atos Origin). Finally, the report mentions France’s excellence in mathematics, which has one of the best schools in the world,
Among the upcoming technological revolutions that France could successfully lead, the report highlights cloud computing or cloud computing (see REM n ° 9, p.43) describing this phenomenon as “the main revolution of the computer since the advent of the Internet“. As evidenced by major technology vendor buybacks and numerous strategic alliances, IT stakeholders have made cloud computing a focus for development, which could account for between 20% and 25% of the IT market. by 2020. Increasing the quality and capacity of the network infrastructure will require increased convergence between IT and telecommunications. Automated data centers will have to be built. The role of the public authorities will be decisive in the construction of cloud computing infrastructures through financial aids as well as appropriate taxation and regulation. The American group IBM has planned to invest 300 million euros in the European cloud computing market, while the French State will devote 780 million euros in future investments. The advent of cloud computing will also require a new approach to IT security in the face of significant risks of espionage and cybercrime. The development of cloud computing as an instrument to improve business competitiveness is also one of the priority objectives of the European Commission. The advent of cloud computing will also require a new approach to IT security in the face of significant risks of espionage and cybercrime. The development of cloud computing as an instrument to improve business competitiveness is also one of the priority objectives of the European Commission. The advent of cloud computing will also require a new approach to IT security in the face of significant risks of espionage and cybercrime. The development of cloud computing as an instrument to improve business competitiveness is also one of the priority objectives of the European Commission.
Foresight is an exercise that involves risks such as forgetting or misjudging the future impact of certain emerging technologies. In 1995, the first edition of this study had largely underestimated the arrival of the Internet at a time when France boasted of its Minitel, as recalled by the journalist Frank Niedercorn ( Les Echos , March 15, 2011) , adding that there are too many French labs that have been expatriated; for example, those dealing with the computer storage of the 2007 Nobel Prize in physics Albert Fert, head of the laboratory run jointly by the CNRS and the Thomson group, and who finally benefited the American IBM.